Wow. I’m an adult. I always wanted to give a recommendation and advice to people. Not really. The fact is that I make dozens of small stupid trades without a thesis and instead just running on poor technical analysis skills, my emotions and chasing. So I lose. But let me make a thesis here why ASPN should go down. Random order:
- Short interest rising
- Poor earnings
- GM is 40% of revenue and that will just basically shrink (EVs, competition for ASPN, deal with China). Also, there’s nothing overly binding relationship of GM with ASPN.
- Broke it’s volume profile for last 2,5,10,20,40,60,100,120 days (yes, each one I calculate separately)
- ChatGPT says it’s bad regarding last quarter
- ChatGPT says it’s bad even on TA
- Management selling shares
- Volume increasing 2nd half of day while breaching another support end of session
- No great news on horizon
Anyways, a bit scared coz yea… big position for me. I think it’s +EV to short but then it could become a double bottom too in theory so SL is quite tight.
Would my thinking be correct if I said that as market maker the campaign for this stock is over and better to bring it further down? coz today there was article “bull of the day” for ASPN and I’m like of course not thrilled. At the same time – what’s the sentiment if the article comes out and stock closes -6% re-breaking support and closing below lowest low from like 10 months ago. Let’s see…
